Price Transmission Analysis of the International Soybean Market in a Trade War Context

This study analysed the dynamics of international soybean market using econometric techniques and economic models to impacts US–China trade war. It considered analysis “spatial” (horizontal) price transmission during an approximately ten-year period from September 2009 May 2019 monthly time-series data. The research focused on leaders in market, namely, China, USA, EU, Brazil Argentina. Several were employed. stationarity time series was determined augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test. Structural breaks inferred ADF test with a Bai–Perron multiple break long-term relation/cointegration amongst Johansen cointegration (1988), previous input as dummy variables. direction causality Granger (1969). short-term causal relations vector autoregression model (VAR) error correction (VECM). results showed highly efficient cointegrated market. incidents war, represented by tariffs subsidies, had minor effects efficacy, transmission. arbitrage process studied managed get around tariffs. In other words, there no empirical evidence support claim that law one (LOOP) did not hold.